Dan Ives Says He Would Be 'Shocked' If SPCX, TSLA Don't Merge Within A Year – Adds Tesla Shareholders Could Back Deal If Valuation Is Right

During an interview with CNBC, Ives said Tesla shareholders’ support for a potential merger would largely depend on the valuation and price offered in the deal.

• Ives cited the cross-pollination and having AI technology under one hood as the other factors that make a SpaceX and Tesla merger likely.
• However, he thinks a merger is not SpaceX's top priority right now, adding that the company’s focus is currently on launches and Starlink.
• Ives also thinks that OpenAI and Anthropic would have to go public ultimately because of the ongoing AI arms race.

Wedbush’s Global Head of Tech Research, Dan Ives, on Monday said that he would be “shocked” if the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) merger does not happen over the next year.

During an interview with CNBC, Ives highlighted the potential synergies between the two companies following SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO last week.

“When I look out over the next year, I continue to view that… I would be shocked if it doesn’t happen, just given the synergies, given the cross-pollination, and also for Musk himself, I think it makes the most sense to have all that AI technology under one hood, especially given the controlling nature of SpaceX,” he said.

SpaceX shares were up nearly 6% in Monday’s pre-market trade, while Tesla shares were up more than 1%. SPCX was the top trending ticker on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

Ives Says It Will Be About The Price For TSLA Shareholders

Ives said Tesla shareholders’ support for a potential merger would largely depend on the valuation and price offered in the deal.

However, he thinks a merger is not SpaceX's top priority right now.

“It’s all a game of high stakes poker, that’s not the first priority right now. It’s about SpaceX, it’s about launches, Starlink,” he added.

SpaceX COO Gwenn Shotwell said during another CNBC interview that there is no question about the synergies between Tesla and SpaceX.

“In our future, there is definitely a convergence of kind of what we’re all trying to accomplish in the future. But right now, I’m focused on keeping the lights on here, keeping rockets in production, flying rockets, flying people, getting to the International Space Station, and critically, providing broadband to folks that don’t have access,” she said.

Ives Says OpenAI, Anthropic Would Have To Go Public Ultimately

Ives added that the ongoing AI revolution is all about data. He thinks that frontier AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic will ultimately have to go public.

“It’s not just SpaceX. Look at OpenAI, Anthropic… everyone else is going to ultimately have to go public because of the arms race, because of data,” he said.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed their draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month in preparation for an initial public offering (IPO).

SPCX stock is up 19% year-to-date, while TSLA stock is down 10%. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 23% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 35%.

The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) is up 80% during this period.

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