Dan Ives Says American AI Tech Is Far Superior To China’s: ‘No One Will Compare From A Model Perspective’

While the launch of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 was a “mini DeepSeek moment,” the reality is that OpenAI and Anthropic are “playing a whole different game,” Ives said.

• China’s advances in AI and semiconductors have recently weighed on trading in the U.S.
• The U.S. market is going through a significant rotation in July, with a major pullback in chip stocks.
• “We're going to continue to go through these ‘gut check’ moments. Whether it's Chinese models, whether it's capex…” Ives said.

Tech analyst Dan Ives said U.S. AI technology remains well ahead of China’s, arguing that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are likely to maintain their lead even as a new wave of low-cost, open-weight AI models from Chinese developers intensifies competitive pressures.

While the launch of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 was a “mini DeepSeek moment,” the reality is that OpenAI and Anthropic are “playing a whole different game,” Ives said on The Pomp Podcast hosted by Professional Capital Management CEO Anthony Pompliano.

“No one will compare from a model perspective to where they are, especially when you think on the open source side. I think the investors, maybe industry, everyone keeps waiting for some crack in the armor,” Ives said.

He argued that newer AI models will continue to emerge and become more affordable over time, but U.S. AI companies are likely to maintain their lead thanks in part to their deeply entrenched relationships with enterprise customers.

“The value will be in data and the moat, and that continues to ultimately be. I think that's the key Anthropic and OpenAI plan. That's why they're so focused on the enterprise. That's the right move,” Ives said. 

“For the first time in 30 years, it's not even a question. The U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech, and I think that's just such an important point where we are. 

US Stocks Seeing Tech Rotation

The U.S. market is going through a significant rotation in July. Investors are selling off chip and chip-adjacent stocks that ran sharply in the past year and putting the money back in Big Tech and software companies.

The pullback comes despite a strong start to the tech earnings season, raising questions about whether the AI-driven euphoria in parts of the technology sector is beginning to fade and whether a broader downturn may be taking hold.

More recently, China’s advances in AI and semiconductors have come to weigh on trading in the U.S. Kimi K3, which combines near-frontier AI performance with low costs, has gained remarkable recognition since its launch on July 16, while China's largest memory chip firm ChangXin Memory Technologies made a resounding debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange this week. 

Ives Says AI Monetization In Focus In H2

Ives said that there will be several “Gut Check” moments over the next six months, while investors will closely track how AI investments translate to meaningful revenue.

“We're going to continue to go through these ‘gut check’ moments. Whether it's Chinese models, whether it's capex, you know, investors are sort of putting the white flag, and they want companies to ultimately cut it (spending) instead of waiting to see free cash flow monetization. But I just think it all comes down to how the monetization bets will start to show in the second half of the year,” Ives said.

“That to me is the key to this market. Now, of course, it's like Fed, oil, gold, crypto. Yeah, you could do it. So, but it's tech that will ultimately drive this market, or if the market obviously gets hit, it's tech that is the better option.”

Ives recently left Wedbush to co-found investment bank and advisory firm Yorkville Ives & Co.

OpenAI, Anthropic Racing To IPO

Investors are closely watching developments at OpenAI and Anthropic – and the broader AI industry – as they move toward a public listing, setting up a potential IPO showdown.

Both companies confidentially filed IPO paperwork with regulators last month, before reports emerged that OpenAI may delay its listing until next year rather than the previously expected fourth-quarter timeline.

OpenAI now broadly trails Anthropic, based on the most recently disclosed numbers. In April, Anthropic said it tripled its annual revenue run rate to $30 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s ARR of about $24 billion. 

Anthropic is valued at $1.13 trillion, compared to OpenAI’s private market valuation of $843.97 billion, according to data from Nasdaq Private Market. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘neutral’ for OpenAI and Anthropic on Tuesday.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<