Crude Prices Sink, Oil Majors Don't: How Exxon And Chevron Learned To Thrive In A Rough Year

XOM and CVX are holding their ground—even as crude prices slide—by leaning on scale, deals, and fiscal discipline.

• According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year.
• In early December, Exxon said it had increased the cost savings plan by $2 billion and forecast reaching $20 billion in reductions by 2030.
• Chevron in November said it has increased its planned cost reductions to between $3 billion and $4 billion by the end of next year.

Even as oil prices have spent much of the year drifting lower, ExxonMobil and Chevron have quietly defied gravity. While crude has failed to deliver the kind of rally energy stocks typically feed on, the two oil majors have managed to keep their share prices afloat.

The explanation lies beyond just oil. Both companies have leaned on fortress balance sheets strengthened by recent acquisitions, healthier refining margins, and an unrelenting focus on cost discipline. Those factors have helped insulate earnings and investor confidence, even as the broader energy complex grapples with softer crude prices.

West Texas Intermediate is hovering near $56 a barrel and Brent crude around $60 — down roughly 19% and 18%, respectively, so far this year. Yet ExxonMobil shares are up more than 8% year-to-date, while Chevron has eked out gains of nearly 2%, underscoring how operational strength and financial resilience can matter more than the price of oil itself.

Refinery Margins: The Powerhouse For Big Oil

One of the things helping the big oil firms is steady growth in refining margins, driven by sanctions on Russia, refinery outages, and maintenance.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025, ending the quarter just 9 cents per barrel less than they started, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year.

EIA noted that the rise in refinery margins, mainly diesel crack spreads — a measure of refinery margins for diesel — was due to elevated pressure from international markets, as geopolitical tensions threatened supplies from Middle East refiners. The climb partly reflects renewed global pressure on distillate markets following disruptions to Russia’s distillate production and a Russian ban on diesel exports following attacks on its refineries, EIA said.

Exxon And Chevron Keeping Costs Under Check

In early December, Exxon said it had increased the cost savings plan by $2 billion and forecast reaching $20 billion in reductions by 2030. The company in late September said that it would cut 2,000 jobs globally as part of its restructuring plan.

Chevron in November said it had increased its planned cost reductions to between $3 billion and $4 billion by the end of next year, much bigger than a prior forecast of $1 billion. Three months later, the company said it would lay off 20% of its workforce.

Chevron and Exxon are also turning to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation to power data centers with equipment and turbines.  

Mergers Helping Power Growth

In July, Chevron said that it had completed its $55 billion acquisition of Hess. The buyout has added assets like those in Guyana and the U.S. Bakken to Chevron’s diversified global portfolio. Chevron now owns a 30% position in the Guyana Stabroek Block, which has more than 11 billion barrels of oil-equivalent discovered recoverable resources.

In November, ExxonMobil completed the $60 billion deal to buy Pioneer, which has high-return development potential in the Permian Basin. The combined company’s more than 1.4 million net acres in the Delaware and Midland basins have an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil-equivalent resources, Exxon said.

Exxon’s Permian production volume will more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MOEBD), based on 2023 volumes, and is expected to increase to approximately 2 MOEBD in 2027.

Buyback Gives Extra Boost

In October, Chevron said it returned $6 billion to shareholders during the third quarter, including $2.6 billion in share repurchases and $3.4 billion in dividends. The company last month said that it expects annual share repurchases of $10 billion to $20 billion through 2030. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil said that in the third quarter, shareholder distributions totalled $9.4 billion, including $4.2 billion of dividends and $5.1 billion of share repurchases. 

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail trader sentiment on ExxonMobil improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a month ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

Sentiment on Chevron also improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ territory a month ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels.

Shares of Exxon have jumped 10% in the last 12 months, while Chevron has risen over 3% in the same period.

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