Bitwise Model Suggests Bitcoin’s Market Cap Could Over Take Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft By 2035

Rudd and Porter warn that the model requires significant presumptions and ignores regulatory shifts, macroeconomic shocks, and lengthy downturns.

• According to Bitwise's Strategic Reserve model, Bitcoin’s price might reach $1 million by 2035.
• At $1 million per Bitcoin, the market cap could exceed $20 trillion, surpassing equities like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. 
• Dragosch believes Bitcoin's appreciation will depend on its liquid supply shrinking, not its halving cycles.

André Dragosch, Bitwise's European Head of Research, on Friday claimed Bitwise's Strategic Reserve Accumulation model estimates Bitcoin’s (BTC) price might reach $1 million per coin by 2035.

While Dragosch did not explicitly state that Bitcoin will overtake companies like Apple or NVIDIA in value, if his projections are realized, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could surpass that of today’s largest large-cap equities like Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft.

Bitwise’s Strategic Reserve Model

According to his prediction, the model treats Bitcoin as an emerging strategic reserve asset rather than a speculative technology, arguing that demand from asset managers, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and potentially governments is becoming the dominant price driver. 

Dragosch said on X that his predictions are based on a 2025 paper by economists Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter. Under the model, Bitcoin prices can range from $250,000 in a bearish scenario to roughly $1.5 million in a bullish scenario by 2030. By 2035, the base case can approach $950,000, with assumptions pushing valuations above $5 million. Dragosch called this model the “most realistic $BTC valuation framework to date.”

Bitcoin Could Take Over Apple

For $1 million per BTC, and with a fixed maximum supply of roughly 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s total market value would approach $20 trillion. By comparison, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are each valued at roughly $3 trillion to $4 trillion, meaning Bitcoin would exceed their current market capitalizations purely through price appreciation driven by long-term institutional accumulation.

Currently, Bitcoin is valued at roughly $1.75 trillion, while Apple’s market capitalization stands at $4.05 trillion, with a stock price of $272.

Bitcoin was trading at $88,066.55, up over 0.8% over the past day. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘low’ levels of chatter over the last 24 hours. 

Bitcoin’s Boom Won’t Depend On Halving Cycles

Dragosch said on X, unlike earlier valuation frameworks that focused on “Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle,” the Strategic Reserve model emphasizes “inelastic demand” and shrinking liquid supply, where rising prices encourage further adoption.

Rudd and Porter caution that the model relies on strong assumptions and does not fully account for regulatory shifts, macroeconomic shocks, or prolonged downturns.

Read also: Arthur Hayes Says Bank Of Japan Rate Hike Could Boost Bitcoin To A Million

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