Bitcoin Just Had One Of Its ‘10 Best Days’ And A Rare Signal — Tom Lee Says ‘HODL’

ETH, SOL, HYPE and ZEC gained alongside Bitcoin, but the spotlight was on Ethereum spot ETFs that pulled in $189.15 million on Thursday, their largest single-day inflow in 10 months.

• Bitcoin jumped more than 22% this week, its best weekly performance since March 2024.
• Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argues the week was one of Bitcoin’s “10 best days” that account for almost all of the asset’s long-term gains.
• Bitcoin's weekly move had a +7.12 sigma reading, the highest in at least 10 years of data, said Jordi Visser.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied over 22% in the past week, showing its strongest weekly performance since 2024, now Fundstrat’s Tom Lee warned investors that it would be "better to hold on for dear life (HODL)," given he sees a momentum upwards. 

‘Better To HODL’

Lee, who also serves as the chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), said on Friday that the week was one of Bitcoin's "10 best days." He pointed to research from Fundstrat that showed Bitcoin's 10 best trading days since 2014 accounted for a positive 162% in cumulative returns, while the remaining 365 days averaged negative 14%.

In other words, investors who stepped aside waiting for a lower risk missed the handful of explosive sessions that drove nearly all of Bitcoin's long-term gains.

Additionally, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Zcash (ZEC) posted gains on Saturday, alongside Bitcoin. Lee had separately flagged Ethereum spot ETFs drawing $189.15 million on Thursday, the largest single-day inflow in 10 months, calling it "a good sign" for ETH. In early July, Lee had mentioned that Bitcoin’s entire return hinges on just 10 days a year where it brings notable returns to investors. 

Record-Breaking Sigma Move

The scale of Bitcoin's recent rally showed up in technical data as well. 

According to Wall Street veteran Jody Visser, Bitcoin's weekly move hit a +7.12-sigma reading, the largest in at least 10 years of weekly observations, surpassing the +6.46-sigma move on April 7, 2019, and the +6.22σ move on January 15, 2023. A sigma move measured how far a price swing deviated from its recent norm, and anything above 3 is considered extremely rare.

Both previous spikes marked the start of sustained rallies out of bear markets rather than one-off squeezes. Visser said Bitcoin historically "accelerates out of bear markets when vol has compressed, and it is ignored," and that the pattern from the 2018 and 2022 cycle exits was "a large weekly sigma move where BTC crossed the 200-day moving average." He added, "So far this week is the same pattern."

Spot Buying, Not Leverage

The question those signals raised was whether the rally was built to last or was just a leverage squeeze that faded. 

Bitfinex analysts, in an email to Stocktwits, said the evidence pointed to the former, noting that Bitcoin's price climbed 10% to 11% while open interest rose only about 4%, meaning spot buying and short covering did the heavy lifting rather than fresh leverage. 

According to the analysts, the $68,000 to $69,000 zone was the level to watch, as it represented the cost basis for anyone who bought over the past 5 months. Daily exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows running into billions across recent sessions would need to sustain for a full week to harden the support and mark a genuine shift in demand structure, the analysts added. 

$80K In Sight

Separately, analyst Heisenberg pointed to Bitcoin's 50-week moving average as a critical technical level, noting that the current setup followed the last cycle when Bitcoin dropped below the 50-week average and then backtested before it rallied roughly 47%. 

BTC’s price was trading at the $ 77,000 level over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this was Bitcoin’s best-performing week since March, 2024. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<