Bitcoin Has Never Ended A Post-Halving Year In The Red — And BTC’s Down 7% With Days To Go

Roughly every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a halving event that cuts the new supply in half, with the subsequent year known as the ‘post-halving’ year.

• Bitcoin is down roughly 7% from its Jan. 1 annual open with two days left in the year.
• A year-end close at current levels would mark Bitcoin’s first red post-halving year ever.
• Analysts say ETF flows, institutions, and macro conditions now outweigh halving mechanics.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down roughly 7% on Wednesday morning from its annual open with two days remaining in the year, putting it on track to finish a post-halving year in the red for the first time on record.

Bitcoin’s price edged 0.2% higher in early morning trade to around $87,800 but remains well below its January 1, 2025, opening price of $94,419.76, according to CoinMarketCap data. If prices hold near current levels, Bitcoin would post a negative annual return in a post-halving year — something that has never happened across previous halving cycles.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, even as chatter rose to ‘normal’ from ‘low’ levels.

What A Bitcoin Halving Means For Markets

A Bitcoin halving is a protocol-driven event that cuts the block reward paid to miners in half, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. Halvings occur roughly every four years and are designed to enforce Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins.

The year following a halving, called the post-halving year,  has historically delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest returns, driven by tightening supply and rising demand. Bitcoin halvings took place in 2012, 2016, 2020, and most recently in 2024.

In the first post-halving year after 2012, Bitcoin surged more than 5,000%, fueled by early adoption and a small market base. The 2016 cycle produced gains exceeding 1,100% amid the ICO boom that pushed Bitcoin toward $20,000. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose roughly 60% from January to December, then reached an all-time high near $69,000.

The 2025 Cycle Breaks From History

The current post-2024 halving cycle has unfolded differently. Bitcoin climbed to a peak near $126,000 earlier this year before pulling back sharply.

Market watchers like Strategy’s Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have also pointed out that the four-year cycle no longer applies. They’ve stated that institutional participation, ETF flows, and macro conditions play a larger role than supply mechanics alone. 

Later halving cycles have delivered smaller, more volatile gains compared to Bitcoin’s early years. If Bitcoin closes the year lower, it would mark a symbolic shift in evolving market dynamics.

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