Bitcoin Has Fallen After 8 Of The Last 9 FOMC Decisions — Will This Time Be Different? Crypto Analysts Are Split

CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 0% chance of a cut, 62.1% chance of no change, and 37.9% chance of a 25bp hike, while Citadel's Frank Flight and bond strategist Harley Bassman bet on a surprise hike.

• Chartist Ardi notes that in the week after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has, on average, dropped by 11%, with May 2025 being the only exception.
• The pattern remains, and irrespective of the Fed's decision, pre-priced expectations leave little upside, while post-FOMC “sell-the-news” pressure dominates.
• Macro analyst Benjamin Cowen expects a pause on Wednesday and a hike in September, warning that tighter policy would hit speculative alts the hardest.
• Michaël van de Poppe is more bullish, calling Bitcoin’s recent action “a very solid bounce” and citing a reversal in South Korean equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again heading into a Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday under a cloud of macro uncertainty. According to a crypto chartist, BTC has often dropped in the week following eight of the last nine Federal Reserve policy decisions, regardless of whether the central bank cut rates, held rates, or signaled a hawkish stance.

The only exception was back in May 2025, when the token had already fallen by around 24% from its all-time high before the meeting began, said crypto chartist Ardi. 

“What we have consistently seen after these meetings is an average drop of 11% in the 7 days post‑FOMC, which would put price back near the $70K region over the next week if it repeats. Based on the last month of price action, I don’t believe bulls will just let structure fold that easily,” said the chartist.

Why Bitcoin Often Struggles After FOMC Decisions 

The recurring pattern suggests FOMC meetings have tended to be volatility events rather than reliable directional catalysts for Bitcoin, with traders often unwinding positions after the policy announcement regardless of the outcome. Since rate expectations are usually priced in ahead of time, there is little new upside from the meeting itself, and “sell-the-news” pressure tends to dominate Bitcoin’s post-FOMC price action.

Bitcoin’s price was up over 1% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘low’ levels over the past day.

As the Fed gears up for its second policy announcement under Chairman Kevin Warsh, crypto analysts and Wall Street strategists are divided on the rate decision itself and what it could mean for Bitcoin.

Crypto Analysts Are Split On The Post-Fed Outlook 

However, this time around, the majority of crypto commentators are betting that the Fed will hold.  Ahead of the meeting, macro analyst Benjamin Cowen said that he expects the Fed to hold rates steady Wednesday, with a hike more likely in September 2026. 

Cowen pointed to higher long-end Treasury yields, jobless claims near multi-decade lows and a rebound in energy prices as reasons the bond market might eventually force the Fed to tighten later this year. He noted that the recent times the Fed has changed policy, it has tended to start in September, not mid-summer. “This is the narrative that you need," he said. "Not that you need one, but if you needed one, this is the one that you need."

He argued tighter policy would hit altcoins hardest. "Most of that stuff has no business existing anyway," Cowen said, adding that many projects "only existed during a loose monetary policy." That, he said, explains the flight to safety, adding, "That's why you've seen mega cap tech stocks outperform micro cap stocks. That's why you've seen Bitcoin outperform altcoins."

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe was more bullish on Bitcoin, calling the recent price action “a very solid bounce” and pointing to a sharp reversal in South Korean equities as a sign the low may be in for risk assets. Markets were probably pricing in “extreme fear” ahead of the decision, he said, leaving room for Bitcoin and Nasdaq (NDAQ) futures to extend their rally if that fear turns out to be overdone.

CME’s FedWatch Tool places the odds of a rate cut at 0.0%. Markets are pricing in a 62.1% chance of no change and a 37.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike.

Wall Street Sees A Small But Growing Chance Of A Surprise Hike

Institutional voices are tilting towards a surprise hike. Citadel Securities head of macro strategy Frank Flight reportedly changed his base case this week to a rate increase, saying such a move "would emphatically end the forward guidance era" and highlight the Fed's independence, as per Bloomberg. 

Additionally, the report said Bond market analyst Harley Bassman said the Fed should “rip off the band-aid” with a 50-basis-point increase. That would create an inflation-fighting reputation and show the central bank is not bound to pressure from President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs, he added.

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