ASTS, RKLB, RDW, SATS Jump As SpaceX Prices Historic IPO — Cloudflare CEO Weighs In On 'Perfect' 20% Pop Prediction

Former Goldman exec Matt Levine said that a 20% first-day gain is the ideal IPO outcome for SpaceX.

• SpaceX officially priced 555.6 million shares at $135 each, with an additional $11 billion greenshoe option available.
• Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince cited Levine's "perfect" IPO pop theory, suggesting companies have more control over IPO outcomes than investors realize.
• Retail investors reportedly submitted more than $100 billion in orders for SpaceX shares.

Space stocks rallied in extended trading on Thursday after SpaceX priced its historic IPO at $135, while Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince weighed in on whether Elon Musk may have nailed a "perfect" debut.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Redwire (RDW) and EchoStar (SATS) climbed between 5% and 11% after-hours as SpaceX locked in a $135 IPO price, fueling optimism across the space sector. 

Cloudflare CEO Weighs In On 'Perfect' SpaceX IPO Pop

Late Thursday, SpaceX officially priced 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at about $1.8 trillion. Underwriters also hold an option to purchase an additional 83 million shares, which could increase proceeds by $11 billion.

After the pricing announcement, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince noted on X a column by Matt Levine, former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, who called a 20% first-day gain the "perfect" IPO outcome.  

"Anyone remember what $NET's IPO 'pop' was?" Prince posted on X. "I like Matt Levine calling it 'perfect' — to the penny. You have a lot more control of what happens when you price an IPO than it may seem. If @elonmusk turns out to have called it even close to perfect two weeks in advance."

Levine said in his column that a 20% first-day jump is the ideal balance between rewarding investors and maximizing proceeds for the issuer. He also noted that SpaceX's books were reportedly oversubscribed by more than 4x at the $135 price and suggested that the company likely spent months testing that valuation before the official roadshow.

Retail Investors Swamp SpaceX IPO

The pricing follows one of the most frenzied IPO order books in history. Retail investors alone reportedly submitted over $100 billion in orders for SpaceX shares, exceeding the size of the entire deal. The company is expected to allocate at least 20% of available shares to retail buyers, leaving much of that demand unfilled. 

The offering also attracted 1,000 institutional investors, including major sovereign wealth funds. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Kuwait Investment Authority and Qatar Investment Authority are all reported to be among the large investors seeking allocations.

The Kobeissi Letter, in a post later reposted by Musk, noted on X that retail demand alone was nearly enough to absorb the entire $75 billion offering.

Analyst Calls SpaceX A 'Megacap Reality Check'

However, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said on X that SpaceX’s valuation has turned the excitement around its IPO into a “megacap reality check.” According to Aslam, SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation equates to 52x forward sales, placing it in an unusual position between traditional space companies, telecommunications firms and AI infrastructure plays. 

His analysis showed SpaceX trading at a substantially higher sales multiple than Nvidia, Tesla and most megacap tech companies. However, it also showed SpaceX trading below some space-sector favorites, including AST SpaceMobile at 80x forward sales and Rocket Lab at 60x.

"The chart shows it cheaper than some space peers, but richer than many AI, cloud and megacap names," Aslam said. "This is the danger inside the hype. Investors must decide what SpaceX really is before pricing it: space company, Starlink telecom giant, AI platform, or all three."

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Space Stocks?

On Stocktwits, sentiment for ASTS was 'neutral' amid 'low' message volume; RKLB and RDW were both at 'bullish' amid 'normal' message volume, while SATS’ reading showed 'extremely bullish' amid 'extremely high' message volume. 

Over the past year, SATS has soared 642%, RKLB has climbed 320%, and ASTS has gained 168%, while RDW is down 15%. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<