Arthur Hayes’ ‘iOS Warfare’ Warning – Why Trump In Iran Means Bitcoin’s Price Could Go Up

In a Substack post, Hayes noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has engaged militarily with one or more Middle Eastern countries.

• Hayes compared the frequency of the U.S. Presidents attacking the Middle East to how often OpenAI updates its platform.
• He also shared data showing that every time the U.S. has initiated conflict in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve has either cut interest rates or printed more money.
• As per his thesis, depending on how long the current conflict drags on, the central bank is likely to cut interest rates or print more money in the long-term, which is bullish for Bitcoin. 

Founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said on Sunday that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, attempting a regime change, is likely to make markets more volatile, but will be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) in the long run.

“At the behest of the most peaceful president in US history, Donald J. Trump, the US Department of War and OpenAI launched their offensive agentic AI weapon, a deadly new Apple iOS,” he wrote in his latest Substack newsletter. “This operating system, once uploaded to a nation’s cyber infrastructure, attempts regime change.”

Hayes compared the frequency of OpenAI’s updates to U.S. Presidents attacking the Middle East as a “rite of passage”. He noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has engaged militarily with one or more Middle Eastern countries.

This isn’t cheap, in terms of military spending and casualties, as well as infrastructure costs. More importantly for Bitcoin, it is followed by the Federal Reserve printing more money to support the economy. Hayes reiterated his thesis that if more money is printed, Bitcoin is likely to gain. 

Why Trump’s Actions In Iran Could Affect Bitcoin

According to Hayes, Trump’s attempt to pull off a regime change in Iran will likely lead to widespread casualties and massive infrastructural damage “at the minimum cost of hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars.”

When George W. Bush senior attacked the Gulf in 1990, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates after a spike in inflation due to oil prices, following which the economy was faced with declining output and rising unemployment. When his son, also George W. Bush, attacked Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11, the central bank cut rates to restore confidence in the economy. 

“Sitting here today, we do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking, nor how much geopolitical and financial market pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs,” Hayes wrote. “The prudent action is to wait and see.” 

According to him, the best time to buy Bitcoin or altcoins like Hyperliquid (HYPE) is right after the Federal Reserve officially cuts interest rates or prints more money to support the U.S. government’s goals in Iran.

Bitcoin Falls In Tandem With The Stock Market

Bitcoin’s price fell 1.2% in the last 24 hours to around $66,700 on Sunday night. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency on Stocktwits, moved higher with ‘bullish’ territory over the past day. 

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tumbled 0.83% in overnight trade while the Nasdaq-100 tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was down more than 1%. Both tickers were among the top trending on Stocktwits at the time of writing. Retail sentiment around QQQ on Stocktwits continued to trend in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, while sentiment around SPY trended in the ‘bullish’ zone.

With Bitcoin’s price trading in tandem with the stock market, some users questioned why Bitcoin's safe-haven thesis had not come into play.

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