Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Demand Is Likely Slipping — But Gene Munster Says That’s Not The Real Story

Munster pointed to a key distinction between the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max as an early indicator of how consumers are responding to Apple's split product cycle.

• Munster said iPhone 18 Pro lead times across eight countries initially came in significantly ahead of last year's iPhone 17 Pro, suggesting strong early demand for Apple's latest premium model.
• However, he noted that the lead times have since fallen considerably further, which are 31% shorter now.
• Munster acknowledged that the decline is concerning, but said some deterioration was expected because Apple's new iPhone Duo could pull consumers away from the Pro lineup.

Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro demand may be losing some momentum after a strong start, but Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster believes the latest data needs to be viewed in the broader context of Apple's new iPhone lineup.

Munster pointed to a key distinction between the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max as an early indicator of how consumers are responding to Apple's split product cycle.

Apple shares ended with a loss of over 1% in Friday’s regular trade and edged lower by another 0.2% in the afterhours session.

iPhone 18 Pro Lead Times Are Falling

Munster said iPhone 18 Pro lead times across eight countries initially came in significantly ahead of last year's iPhone 17 Pro, suggesting strong early demand for Apple's latest premium model.

On launch day, iPhone 18 Pro lead times were 15% longer than those for the iPhone 17 Pro a year earlier, he noted. They remained 15% higher after one week before falling to 5% below last year's levels at the two-week mark.

Munster said that the lead times have since fallen considerably further, which are 31% shorter now.

He acknowledged that the decline is concerning, but said some deterioration was expected because Apple's new iPhone Duo could pull consumers away from the Pro lineup.

"Going into the cycle, I predicted we would see lead times 20% lower than last year given the carrot of the new Duo would pull former Pro buyers up to the Duo," he said.

iPhone 18 Pro Max Holds Up Despite The Duo

While the iPhone 18 Pro has seen lead times fall sharply, the Pro Max has held up much better, Munster observed.

On launch day, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were 18% longer than the iPhone 17 Pro Max a year earlier. They remained 8% higher after one week and 6% higher after two weeks, he said. Today, they are still roughly in line with last year's levels, according to Munster, who termed this as a “win” for Apple, while noting that he expected the Duo to pull a meaningful portion of last year's Pro Max buyers away from the premium lineup.

"My guess is a sizable, maybe 20%, of last year's early Pro Max buyers are holding off for the Duo," he said.

If that is happening, Munster argues the stable Pro Max lead times could indicate that other iPhone buyers are moving up the product ladder instead.

One possibility is that consumers who would normally buy the standard iPhone 18 are choosing the Pro or Pro Max instead because the standard model will not ship until next spring. "In this case, that's a win for the FY27 iPhone revenue," Munster said.

That potential mix shift could become increasingly important as investors assess whether Apple's decision to split its iPhone launch cycle is actually working. The combined iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max lead times are currently averaging about three weeks, Munster said, which remains roughly in line with last year's combined figure. But he cautioned that the direction of the most recent data matters.

"The trend of the fast decline in recent weeks is more telling," Munster said, while highlighting that the next major test will come when Apple begins taking preorders for the iPhone Duo.

What Retail Traders Think Of AAPL Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Apple trended in the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing.

AAPL stock is up 24% year-to-date and 33% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 16% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 23%.

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