Manchester United vs Arsenal: Can Gunners overcome barren EPL goal-scoring run? What stats reveal

Arsenal's title hopes are at risk as poor finishing and key injuries leave them struggling in the Premier League ahead of their crucial clash with Manchester United.

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Arsenal head into this weekend’s crucial Premier League clash against Manchester United with mounting pressure to regain form after two consecutive goalless outings in the league. Despite their impressive 7-0 victory over PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League earlier this week, Mikel Arteta’s side have struggled in front of goal domestically, failing to score in their last two league matches. The Gunners were beaten 1-0 by West Ham United and could only manage a 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest, leaving them with just one point from the last six available.

The root cause of these disappointing results has been Arsenal’s wasteful finishing. In their past two league games, the team’s finishing has been woeful, with poor shot placement and a lack of clinical edge despite creating numerous chances. Arteta's side registered a total of 33 shots across the two fixtures, but only managed to put three of those efforts on target. This inefficiency has led to a significant loss of momentum for a team that was previously flying high in the title race.

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Arsenal’s Injury Woes

The situation has been compounded by injuries to key players, notably their top three goal scorers. Kai Havertz, who leads the team with nine goals this season, is out for the remainder of the campaign, while both Gabriel Martinelli (six goals) and Bukayo Saka (five goals) have been sidelined for an extended period. Saka, who has also been Arsenal’s best creator with 10 assists and 19 big chances created, is a significant miss for the team. The absence of these three players has left a massive void in the attacking unit, with Arteta struggling to find the right combinations to get his team back on track.

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Despite these challenges, Declan Rice has stepped up to fill the void in terms of chance creation. Rice, who has recently overtaken Saka for most chances created (44 to 42), has been a bright spot for Arsenal in their attacking build-up, although his contribution alone has not been enough to turn the team's fortunes around. Over the past two league matches, Rice created five chances, with Martin Odegaard also contributing five chances created. Leandro Trossard led the charge with seven chances created, but the team’s inability to convert these chances into goals has been a major concern.

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Shot Creation vs. Shot Conversion

While Arsenal have created enough chances to win games, their finishing has let them down badly. Against West Ham, Arsenal had 20 shots, posting an Expected Goals (xG) total of 1.22. Despite having 14 of those shots coming from inside the box, only two were on target. Similarly, against Nottingham Forest, the Gunners had 13 shots, with an xG of 0.99 and eight attempts from inside the box, but only one shot on target.

A deeper look at Arsenal’s shooting data reveals the extent of the problem. Over the past two games, 13 different players have taken shots for Arsenal, with 11 of them failing to hit the target. The shot placement ratio, which compares xG to expected shots on target (xGOT), was alarmingly low for Arsenal in these fixtures. As a team, Arsenal's shot placement ratio was just 0.24, indicating poor shot accuracy. Leandro Trossard had a particularly disappointing ratio of 0.32, while Riccardo Calafiori posted the lowest at 0.11. In contrast, Mikel Merino posted the highest xG among Arsenal players in the last two games (0.51), but his xGOT was only 0.39, giving him a shot placement ratio of 0.75.

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The contrast between Arsenal’s performances in the league and their 7-0 thrashing of PSV Eindhoven could not be more stark. Against the Dutch side, Arsenal had 15 shots, registering eight on target, with the team’s finishing markedly better. Martin Odegaard, who scored twice, had an xG of 0.39, while Ethan Nwaneri (0.36 xG) also found the back of the net. Six Arsenal players hit the target in that match, with Merino leading the way with a remarkable shot placement ratio of 4.78, significantly improving his xG of 0.09 to an actual xGOT of 0.44.

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Manchester United’s Defensive Record

Arsenal’s task is not made any easier by the fact that their next opponents, Manchester United, have had their own struggles this season. The Red Devils have conceded an average of 1.44 xGOT per game in the Premier League this season, which has led to them conceding an equal number of goals. Despite their defensive vulnerabilities, United will be buoyed by their recent 1-0 victory over Arsenal in the FA Cup earlier this season, a result that shows they can still pose a threat to the Gunners.

However, Arsenal will take some comfort from the fact that Manchester United’s defence has been leaky, providing an opportunity for Arteta's side to capitalize on their attacking strengths. If Arsenal can replicate the sharpness they showed in their win over PSV, they could still have enough firepower to break down the Red Devils' defence.

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Arsenal’s title hopes hang in the balance as they travel to Old Trafford for a crucial encounter with Manchester United. With key players sidelined and a worrying lack of clinical finishing, the Gunners will need to find their shooting boots if they are to keep pace with the top teams. While Arsenal’s attack has shown glimpses of quality, it has been their inability to convert chances into goals that has cost them dearly in recent matches.

If Arteta’s men can turn around their fortunes and find their finishing touch, they may still have enough to overcome Manchester United and stay in the hunt for the Premier League title. However, another disappointing result could see their aspirations slip further away.