Exclusive: Will the AIADMK govt survive TTV Dinakaran's 'hard decisions'?

TTV Dinakaran has gotten bail, and he headed immediately to a meeting with Sasikala  With the support of some 22 MLAs, Dinakaran has created a new faction in the AIADMK  Will the AIADMK, already divided over two camps, survive the emergence of a third?   

The granting of bail for TTV Dinakaran has possibly brought strong discomfort to Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisamy's camp within the AIADMK. 

In a single flash, Dinakaran has suddenly emerged as a third faction within the AIADMK, with the support of 22 MLAs and 5 MPs. This will only add more confusion to the already super-charged internal dynamisms with the three camps of the AIADMK - OPS, EPS and TTV camps.

So the question must be asked - is there a grave danger to the continuance of the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu? Will the state government, under pressure from the internal 'toppling' game, survive?

Three events have made this question extremely critical at this juncture - 

1) TTV Dinakaran, who is still the Deputy General Secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), headed to Bengaluru to meet the current General Secretary, VK Sasikala, who is still in jail. 

2) The Tamil Nadu Governor, Ch Vidyasagar Rao, has summoned the Tamil Nadu Assembly on June 14. He has asked the House to consider, and pass, the Goods and Services Tax bill. It is mandatory to do so quickly, otherwise, from July 1, 2017, onwards, Tamil Nadu will get bogged down on taxation issues. 

3) Perhaps the most politically important event - 22 MLAs and 5 MPs received TTV Dinakaran at the Chennai airport, an undeniable sign of support. After all, even if a few MLAs merely abstain during the GST vote on June 14, a question about the survival of the Edappadi Palanisamy government will certainly be raised.

Speaking to Asianet Newsable on the phone, TTV Dinakaran stated that there wouldn't be any danger to the Government, but wondered why a few ministers were scared of facing AIADMK cadres and elected representatives. 

"As a Deputy General Secretary, I will have to take a hard decision after consulting Sasikala - the General Secretary," he added. Dinakaran refused to answer further questions as he was about to leave for Bengaluru by road. 

What is the future of the O Pannerselvam camp?

O Pannerselvam is attracting huge crowds in his meetings. But how long can this be expected? OPS cannot maintain momentum merely through his high-pitch emotional, dramatic demands, like a CBI probe into the death of Jayalalitha or making the Poes Garden residence of Jayalalitha into a national memorial. 

As the days passes by, the public memory being short, such issues will be forgotten. OPS is unable to attract more MLAs from the Edappadi camp. The mediatory talks between OPS and EPS did not take off. OPS is adamant that he will not accept any position less than the Chief Minister. To this, the Sasikala faction will not agree. Will OPS faction get stuck doing only district tours?

We have to wait and watch till June 14, 2017, to see whether the AIADMK MLAs will stand united till they pass the GST and Tamil Nadu Budget.  Watch this space for ten more days.