AIADMK vs DMK: What awaits Tamil Nadu post Presidential Polls?

Once the Presidential elections come to a close, a lot is expected to happen in Tamil Nadu politics. The warring AIADMK factions would eagerly be looking at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP for guidance. These decisions, in the end, will decide on the final power structure for the state. 

The divisions in AIADMK, in the beginning, seemed like a bright opportunity for DMK. After Jaya's demise, the splits in AIADMK came out wide -  soon DMK especially MK Stalin presumed that the chances are bright for DMK to make political inroads. But sadly, none of the AIADMK leaders or cadres crossed over to the Stalin camp. What does it reflect?
AIADMK is basically anti-Karunanidhi crowd. Stalin might have expected a chunk of AIADMK MLAs will cross over and the E Palanisamy Government will fall. Now further adding insult to DMK's injury, soon even TTV Dinakaran was released from jail that once again has changed the political climate in the state.

In short, there is a lot that is going in Tamil Nadu, but here are some of the factors that will decide its future:

AIADMK and BJP ties

Since AIADMK supremo, Jayalalithaa's demise,  the state is going through a political imbalance. In the last six months, the internal power struggle in AIADMK has put the state on the brink of instability. Now to these warring factions, the only hope of stability is PM Modi. The AIADMK leaders have been lining up one after the other hope for some settlement that only the BJP under the leadership of Modiji can bring. 

PM Modi has been helping with the allotment of Central grants and funds to run Tamil Nadu Government. But adding to the miseries of the AIADMK leaders has been the Income Tax and CBI raids, following which these "corrupt" leaders from both E Palanisamy and O Panneerselvam camp have been reaching out to both PM Modi and Amit Shah.

And this friction in AIADMK  has benefitted BJP, which needs the support of AIADMK, which the third largest party in the Parliament. 

Why is DMK jittery over Rajinikanth's plans to launch a political party?

Rajinikanth's dramatic announcement of his plans to launch a political outfit is giving DMK the jitters. The news sent shockwaves into the higher echelons of the party, which since Jaya's demise has been making efforts to take control of the state. But in vain.

Rajni's entry has severely affected MK Stalin, who has now emerged as the undisputed leader within the DMK ranks. He is said to have played a key role in getting all national leaders such as Sonia Gandhi, Nitish Kumar, and all others under one roof for the 94th birthday celebration of M Karunanidhi. 

The sudden rise had given a momentary hope to DMK that soon Stalin might be able to topple AIADMK. But Rajni's entry certainly has damaged DMK's future. The superstar's fanbase is spread across the state and that is bound to eat away DMK's vote. Rajni fans club has 25000 to 30000 strong vote bank in each of the assembly constituencies. There are 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu.  And the megastar will eat away a chunk of DMK votes. 

How Nitish derailed DMK's plans 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar went to Chennai for the 94th birthday of Karunanidhi. His visit, however, only derailed DMK plans. Instead of DMK gain allies, many only distanced themselves. Lalu Prasad, who wanted to avoid being seen with Nitish Kumar, gave the Chennai "mega event" a miss. 
DMK organised the Chennai meet of all leaders to ensure that the opposition was able to come to a consensus over a common Presidential candidate against the BJP.   But it only further added to the divide as Nitish then went on to address the audience in Hindi, something which was not appreciated by the masses.

Why is E Palanisamy camp avoiding meeting TTV Dinakaran? 

In the last three months, E Palanisamy has not spoken to TTV Dinakaran. A simple meeting between Dinakaran and Palanisamy will ensure that AIADMK factions come to a decision over a merger. But the two have remained distant.

The political pundits are of the opinion that if TTV Dinakaran wanted to precipitate the crisis, he can do so by making sure that 30 MLAs defect to his side. But that would mean the collapse of E Palanisamy government. Now that would be suicidal.

BJP wants to unite the three AIADMK factions

BJP leaders meanwhile have urged the three factions of AIADMK to arrive at a solution. Word has it that BJP is pushing for a meeting between TTV Dinakaran and E Palanisamy.Even AIADMK understands that AIADMK leaders need each other, especially because of the intra-caste issues that will play a crucial role during elections. Hence the party should be making efforts to resolve the differences between the Thevar and Gownder leaders.

But in the entire episode, it is BJP that will come out a winner. Whichever side you look, common factor about Tamil Nadu politics is that BJP has gained an entry. And with Narendra Modi's popularity, if BJP brings three factions together to run the Government for next two to three years -- it will be a service done to the departed soul of Jayalalitha. It will also bring the AIADMK leaders to work together to save the government and put a check to the political gains of DMK and its leader Stalin.

(R Rajagopalan is a senior journalist based in Delhi. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect those of Asianet Newsable.)