West Asia conflict risks India's fertiliser supply ahead of sowing

India's fertiliser supply is at risk ahead of the sowing season due to the West Asia conflict disrupting trade. A CareEdge report notes that with 26% of imports from the region, supply chain disruptions could impact the upcoming Kharif season.

India's fertiliser supply is facing growing risks ahead of the sowing season as the ongoing conflict in West Asia disrupts key trade routes, with around 26 per cent of fertiliser imports coming from the region, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.

Impact on Fertiliser Imports

The report highlighted that India sources over a quarter of its fertiliser imports from West Asian countries, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions amid geopolitical tensions. It stated, "Impact on Fertiliser Imports Concerning Ahead of Sowing Season... India sources over a quarter of its fertiliser imports from West Asian countries."

Key Import Sources

Data in the report showed that West Asia accounts for 26.2 per cent of India's fertiliser imports, followed by Jordan at 19.2 per cent and Russia at 15.5 per cent. Other contributors include Morocco at 10.4 per cent, China at 5.7 per cent, Egypt at 5.6 per cent, Canada at 3.8 per cent and Togo at 3.6 per cent, while others account for 10 per cent.

Disruptions to Supply Routes and Prices

The ongoing conflict in West Asia has disrupted key supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important global channels for energy trade. The report noted that such disruptions could pose challenges for India during the upcoming Kharif season, especially amid rising concerns over the possible occurrence of El Nino.

According to the report, supply disruptions could lead to higher fertiliser prices, driven by a sharp rise in LNG prices, which are a key input for fertiliser production. This, in turn, could increase the government's subsidy burden.

Broader Energy Security Concerns

The report further highlighted the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz for India's energy security. It noted that 89 per cent of crude oil and condensate transported through the strait went to Asian markets in the first half of 2025, led by China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Additionally, around 40 per cent of India's crude oil imports are transported through this route, underlining the country's dependence on the region.

The report cautioned that continued disruptions in West Asia could have a cascading impact not only on energy supplies but also on fertiliser availability, which is crucial for agriculture.

Overall, the report emphasised that geopolitical tensions in West Asia could pose significant risks to India's fertiliser supply chain and agricultural output, particularly at a time when weather uncertainties are also rising. (ANI)

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