Sugar prices cool, but crop outlook uncertain pending rainfall data

Sugar prices have cooled to Rs 44-49 per kg, but the crop outlook remains uncertain. The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) is delaying its estimate, waiting for six weeks of rainfall data for a clearer picture.

Sugar prices have cooled to Rs 44-49 per kg and remain under control, but the industry's crop outlook is still uncertain, with the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) waiting for the next six weeks of rainfall data before finalising its estimate, industry representatives said.

Production Outlook Uncertain

ISMA President Niraj Shirgaokar said the association has not yet released its crop estimate as it wants greater clarity on the rainfall pattern across states. “We have to see the rainfall pattern in the next six weeks. That's why ISMA has not made its estimates right now. We will be making our estimates probably at the next committee meeting,” Shirgaokar said on the sidelines of the India Sugar & Bio-Energy Conference on Wednesday.

He said the association was studying the situation and using multiple tools, including artificial intelligence-based technology, to improve the accuracy of its assessment. “We have all our tools. We have a partner; we have a vendor. We are also using AI-based technology. We are using this time much more than last year. So hopefully we will get it right,” Shirgaokar said.

He said El Nino could affect plantation next year, while the impact on the current year's crop would depend on how rainfall progresses. “Right now we know that El Nino is there, which will affect maybe the plantation next year. But for the current year, we have to see how it goes, and different states will have different results,” he said.

Sugar Prices Stable

On sugar prices, Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd, said prices had risen only for a short period before cooling. “I think it went up for a very short period, but things are quite under control now. Prices have dropped down; they have cooled down,” Naiknavare said.

He said sugar prices were currently ranging between Rs 44 and Rs 49 per kg, excluding GST, and described the range as not worrisome as it covers production costs without putting pressure on consumers. “The minimum price that we can think of is 44 rupees a kg without GST, and the highest is about 49, which is not at all worrisome because it covers our production cost basically and it's not hitting the consumers either,” he said.

The comments point to a mixed near-term picture for the sugar industry, with prices currently stable while production prospects remain dependent on rainfall conditions. ISMA's next committee meeting is expected to provide a clearer assessment once the rainfall pattern over the coming six weeks is evaluated. (ANI)

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