India's Kharif sowing gap narrows despite widening rainfall deficit

Despite a widening cumulative rainfall deficit, India's Kharif sowing gap has narrowed significantly. The recovery is led by rice, with pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds also improving. Better rains are forecast for East and Central India.

India's Kharif sowing gap with last year narrowed even as the cumulative rainfall deficit widened over the past three weeks. Conditions are expected to improve, with above-normal rains forecast in parts of East and Central India in the coming weeks, according to a Dolat Capital report.

According to the report, India's cumulative rainfall deficit widened steadily over the past three weeks, from 15 per cent as of July 8 to 17.8 per cent on July 12 and 23.8 per cent by July 19. Despite the deterioration in rainfall, Kharif sowing continued to progress, indicating that sowing activity has so far been supported by accumulated soil moisture.

Sowing Gap Narrows Sharply

Kharif sowing gained further momentum, narrowing the gap with last year. "Total kharif acreage stood at 658.19 lakh ha as of 17th July, reflecting a shortfall of 42.28 lakh ha against the corresponding week of 2025," it noted. This gap, however, has declined sharply from the 101.4 lakh ha shortfall recorded in the previous week.

Rice has led this recovery, closing in almost entirely on last year's pace, while pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton have all seen their shortfalls narrow, even as they continue to trail last year's levels.

Sugarcane remains the sole crop running ahead of last year.

Crop-Wise Acreage Details

Rice acreage stood at 166.41 lakh hectares, marginally below 167.83 lakh hectares a year ago, with the shortfall narrowing sharply to 1.41 lakh hectares from 10.8 lakh hectares in the previous week.

Pulses acreage rose to 69.23 lakh hectares, though it remained below last year's 81.52 lakh hectares; the deficit narrowed to 12.29 lakh hectares from 17.22 lakh hectares, supported by improved sowing of Arhar and Urdbean.

For coarse cereals, it noted, "acreage grew to 119.03 lakh ha against 134.09 lakh ha last year, reducing the shortfall to 15.06 lakh ha from 28.6 lakh ha last week."

Oilseeds recorded the largest absolute narrowing in the acreage gap among major crop groups, with sowing reaching 147.09 lakh hectares against 155.72 lakh hectares a year ago. However, the category continues to lag significantly, despite the recovery being led by a sharp increase in Bajra sowing.

Weather Outlook and El Nino Concern

Overall, the IMD expects near-normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of East and Central India over the coming week, supported by an upper-air cyclonic circulation likely to develop over the north Bay of Bengal, while most other regions may see below-normal precipitation.

"El Nino conditions now persist over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen further through the remainder of the monsoon season," it said. (ANI)

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