Improved monsoon to support Kharif sowing recovery: ICICI Bank

Improved July monsoon is set to aid Kharif sowing recovery despite a 20% rainfall deficit below LPA, says an ICICI Bank report. While sowing is down 20.8% YoY, higher reservoir levels are expected to mitigate the impact of uneven rainfall.

Improved monsoon momentum in July is expected to support the recovery of kharif sowing, while higher water availability and reservoir levels will likely mitigate the impact of uneven rainfall distribution across regions, according to a report by ICICI Bank.

Regional Rainfall Distribution

The report noted, India's cumulative rainfall up to 6 July 2026 stood at 170.7 mm, 20 per cent below the long period average (LPA). While rainfall distribution remains uneven, activity has improved in recent weeks.

East and Northeast India continue to witness a significant deficit of 41 per cent below LPA, whereas rainfall has improved in Northwest India (19 per cent below LPA), South India (15 per cent above LPA), and Central India (5 per cent below LPA). Eastern states including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and North Indian states -- Haryana and Punjab have received less rainfall along with Gujarat and Karnataka.

It noted, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have witnessed normal rainfall. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu has recorded excess rainfall.

At the sub-division level, 17 of 36 sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall, 16 received normal rainfall, and three experienced excess precipitation, as per the report. However, despite the prevailing deficits, the monsoon activity has strengthened in recent weeks, with improved rainfall across several regions. "If sustained, this trend is expected to gradually narrow the seasonal shortfall," the report noted.

Kharif Sowing Status

At the same time, it noted, India's kharif sowing is still below last year's level. As of 5 July 2026, kharif sowing stood at 35.1 million hectares, down 20.8 per cent YoY from 44.3 million hectares in the corresponding period last year, mainly due to deficient rainfall in major kharif-producing states. Among key crops, rice, pulses, and coarse cereals witnessed the sharpest decline in acreage, while sugarcane, jute, and Mesta maintained relatively better sowing coverage.

Mitigating Factors and Outlook

On the other hand, the report notes while reservoir levels remain below optimal due to the delayed monsoon, improving basin-level water availability could help mitigate near-term risks from below-normal rainfall. As per ICICI Bank, rainfall has seen an improvement in India despite intensifying El Nino conditions. Highlighting Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory, the report said, "Current rainfall activity is positive for sowing." (ANI)

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