HSBC keeps Brent at $65 for 2026 despite risks from Iran strikes

HSBC maintains its Brent price forecast at $65/barrel for 2026 but warns of rising risks from US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Key concerns include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, regional instability, and a near-term strengthening of the USD.

HSBC Global Investment Research has kept its Brent price forecast unchanged at USD 65 per barrel for 2026, even as it warned of rising risks following air strikes on Iran.

HSBC's Economic and Market Risk Analysis

In a report titled "Strikes on Iran," HSBC noted that President Trump described a "massive ongoing operation" after strikes were launched. "Given uncertainty, we pull together views related to the economic and market risks of such escalation." HSBC added, "Oil market risk is asymmetrical, with Hormuz transit the main concern; USD likely to have an upper hand in the near-term." It also cautioned, "We can have no conviction on how the situation in Iran may evolve following air strikes launched on Saturday, with the impact contingent on the duration of any conflict and how it extends to the broader region."

Oil Market and Regional Impact

In crude markets, the bank wrote oil market risk is asymmetrical regarding possible Iran scenarios, with Hormuz transit the main concern. While spare capacity in the Mideast Gulf is significant, it warned that it would not be accessible if Hormuz is closed.

Assessing the larger regional impact, HSBC said, "Wealth and policy experience safeguard economic order but any fresh conflict would test sentiment, activity and capital flows in the Gulf and challenge Egypt's recent external account gains."

Foreign Exchange Outlook

In foreign exchange markets, the bank stated the USD is likely to have an upper hand in the near-term. It added, "Geopolitical events can give confusing signals for currencies, not just for the USD."

Sharp Escalation in West Asia

On Saturday, the United States and Israel carried out joint missile attacks on Iran, with large explosions reported in Tehran and other major cities, signalling a sharp escalation that risks expanding tensions into a broader regional conflict in West Asia.

Meanwhile, Iran has retaliated, targeting Israel and US assets in multiple Gulf states.

Multiple explosions have been heard in Iran's capital, Tehran, while blasts have also been reported in several other locations across the country. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate halt to hostilities and urgent de-escalation in West Asia, urging world leaders to "act responsibly". (ANI)

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