Gold enters consolidation phase after retail buying surge: Jefferies

Jefferies reports that gold is in a consolidation phase following a retail buying frenzy. Demand has moderated, particularly in India. However, the gold mining sector remains strong with disciplined capital use and high cash flow generation.

Global investment firm Jefferies in its latest report said that gold has entered a consolidation phase following a strong retail-driven buying surge seen late last year and early this year across key markets including India, China and the United States.

The report noted that the earlier rally in gold demand, particularly from retail investors, has started to moderate, indicating a stabilisation in prices after a period of heightened activity. It stated, "gold has entered a healthy consolidation period after the retail-driven buying frenzy late last year and early this year".

Citing India as an example, the report highlighted that the country recorded gold imports worth USD 14.7 billion in October and USD 12.1 billion in January. However, this trend reversed sharply, with imports declining to USD 3.1 billion in March, reflecting a slowdown in buying momentum. Jefferies described the current phase as a "healthy consolidation period" after the earlier surge in demand, suggesting that the market is adjusting following the retail-led rally.

Gold Mining Sector Shows Discipline

From a gold mining perspective, the report noted a notable absence of excessive optimism at recent industry discussions. It highlighted that companies are focusing more on shareholder returns through rising dividends and stock buybacks rather than aggressive expansion strategies.

This marks a contrast with the previous bull market in gold mining stocks, which peaked in 2011, when significant capital was lost due to acquisitions made at the peak of the cycle. The report further noted that mining companies are showing continued discipline in capital allocation despite favourable price conditions.

The sector has recorded ten consecutive quarters of strong average gold prices, with many companies operating without debt. According to estimates cited in the report, the North American gold mining sector is expected to generate around USD 36 billion in free cash flow in the current calendar year.

Jefferies Maintains Exposure

Based on these trends, Jefferies said it will maintain its exposure to gold mining stocks, with weightings of 10 per cent in global portfolios and 11 per cent in Asia ex-Japan portfolios. The firm also indicated that it may increase its exposure if gold prices revisit the lower end of the current trading range, which it estimates to be between USD 3,800 and USD 4,000 per ounce, compared to the peak level of USD 5,595 per ounce recorded in late January. The current gold prices are trading at USD 4804 per ounce (1 ounce = 28.3495 grams)

So the report suggests that while the gold market is undergoing a phase of consolidation, underlying fundamentals in the mining sector remain strong, supported by disciplined capital management and robust cash flow generation. (ANI)

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