Gold decouples from US Fed, may hit USD 5,000/oz: NDB report

Gold prices could hit USD 4,200-5,000/oz in 12-24 months, says a NDB Wealth Management report. The rise is fueled by strong central bank and Asian demand, making gold less dependent on US interest rate movements.

Gold prices could remain elevated at USD 4,200-5,000 per ounce over the next 12-24 months as central bank purchases and strong Asian investor demand increasingly drive the market, reducing the influence of US interest rate movements, according to a report by NDB Wealth Management.

Gold Decouples from Traditional Market Forces

The yellow metal was trading at USD 4,118.91 per ounce at the time of filing this report, down USD 5.82 or 0.14 per cent. Despite the recent price movement, the report said gold has continued to gain even amid conditions that would traditionally weigh on the precious metal, including higher US interest rates, persistent inflation and a firmer dollar. “Gold has stopped trading off the Fed,” the report said, pointing to a shift in the forces determining prices as central banks and Asian buyers continue to purchase the metal even at elevated levels.

Central Banks and Asian Investors Drive Demand

Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, while Asian gold funds recorded net inflows of nearly 70 tonnes in the first half of the year, their strongest first-half performance on record, the report said.

In contrast, North American gold funds recorded outflows of around 61 tonnes during the same period, reflecting the impact of higher US real yields and a stronger dollar on Western investment demand.

NDB Wealth said central banks are buying gold primarily to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar, rather than to benefit from short-term price movements. It expects official-sector purchases to remain strong, with the World Gold Council projecting around 850 tonnes of central bank buying in 2026, close to the 863 tonnes recorded in 2025.

Limited Supply Supports Prices

Limited supply is another factor supporting prices. Global mine production is forecast to rise by just 2.4 per cent to 3,907 tonnes in 2026, while higher mining costs and long development timelines limit the industry's ability to respond quickly to stronger prices.

Base-Case Scenario and Future Outlook

The report's base-case scenario, assigned a 50 per cent probability, sees gold trading between USD 4,200 and USD 5,000 per ounce over the next 12-24 months. A lasting peace in the Gulf, easing inflation and a pause in US rate hikes could push prices lower, while concerns over US government finances and the Federal Reserve's independence could drive further gains.

NDB Wealth said the outlook would depend on whether central bank buying and Asian demand remain strong, while geopolitical developments and changes in US fiscal credibility could alter gold's price trajectory. (ANI)

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