Fitch Ratings projects 9% revenue growth for Indian firms in FY27

Fitch Ratings projects Indian corporates' revenue to rise by 9% in FY27, up from 5% in FY26, driven by natural resources and core industries. Credit metrics will hold steady, but EBITDA margins are expected to narrow due to cost pressures.

Aggregate revenue for rated Indian corporates is projected to rise by 9 per cent in the financial year ending March 2027 (FY27), up from an estimated 5 per cent in FY26, according to a report titled India Corporates Credit Trends: July 2026 released by Fitch Ratings.

The credit rating agency stated that credit metrics are expected to hold steady during FY27 as faster top-line growth helps cushion cost pressures and softer earnings margins across specific operational sectors.

Revenue Drivers and Profitability Outlook

"We expect aggregate revenue for these corporates to rise by 9% (FY26F: 5%), led by higher prices in the natural resources sector and healthy demand across many core industries," the report stated. Higher prices in the natural resources sector and healthy demand across core industries are expected to drive the overall revenue expansion. However, cost inflation is anticipated to weigh on corporate profitability in key segments.

"We expect the aggregate EBITDA margin to narrow to around 14.2% (FY26F: 15.7%), reflecting cost pressure in the oil refining and marketing, chemicals and cement sectors," Fitch Ratings said in the report.

Credit Leverage to Remain Steady

"We forecast median EBITDA net leverage to remain steady at 2.7x in FY27 (FY26F: 2.6x), though trends will vary by sector," the report added.

Potential External Risks

The report also highlighted external risk factors that could potentially impact corporate performance during the fiscal year. "We believe some corporates could be vulnerable to a re-escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran and the related rise in energy costs, working capital needs and demand pressures, as well as to El Nino and a weak monsoon," the report stated, pointing to potential weather-related disruptions on the domestic economy.

Capital and Liquidity

On the capital and liquidity front, Indian companies are positioned to tap multiple funding avenues to sustain capital expenditure and operational requirements over the forecast period. "Corporates are likely to meet their funding needs through a mix of bank loans, private credit, onshore and offshore debt capital market issuance and available cash buffers," the report noted. (ANI)

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