El Nino, poor rain outlook threaten India's kharif oilseed, cotton

El Nino and a forecast for below-normal rainfall in key agricultural regions are raising concerns for India's kharif oilseed and cotton crops, despite overall sowing gaining momentum, a new report by Dolat Capital has noted.

India's kharif oilseed and cotton crops could face weather-related challenges in the coming weeks as strengthening El Nino conditions, coupled with forecasts of below-normal rainfall across key rain-fed agricultural regions, raise concerns over crop development and yields, according to a report by Dolat Capital.

Kharif Sowing and Rainfall Status

The report noted that Kharif sowing has continued to gain momentum, with the total sown area rising to 531.3 lakh hectares. Furthermore, the seasonal acreage gap has narrowed to just 18.1 lakh hectares compared with the five-year average.

"However, the IMD's extended-range forecast indicates that overall rainfall is likely to remain below normal over the next two weeks," said Dolat Capital. Rajasthan and North Peninsular India, including Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka, will likely receive a below-normal rainfall. Meanwhile, Kerala, parts of East Central India and the Western Himalayan region are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, the report noted.

The cumulative rainfall deficit has continued to narrow, improving to -17.8% as of July 12 from -20% a week ago. The shortfall has been most pronounced in East & Northeast India (-37%) and the South Peninsula (-20%). Whereas Central India (-5%) and Northwest India (-9%) have recorded a far shallower deficit. No part of the country is currently in the large-deficient category, consistent with last week's reading, and the small excess rainfall pocket seen last week (4% of the area) has now evened out to normal.

Crop-wise Acreage Update

Commenting on crop acreage, the report said rice sowing has moved into surplus relative to the five-year norm, driven by faster transplanting, with acreage reaching 114.7 lakh hectares, 17 lakh hectares above normal. In contrast, pulse sowing stood at 56.6 lakh hectares, 5.6 lakh hectares below the five-year average, while coarse cereals also slipped marginally below normal levels.

At the same time, sowing of coarse cereals increased to 98.7 lakh hectares, but remained 2.7 lakh hectares below normal.

Sugarcane sowing reached 57.6 lakh hectares, 2.4 lakh hectares above the normal level.

However, the overall sowing shortfall remains largely concentrated in oilseeds and cotton. Oilseed sowing reached 117.8 lakh ha; however, it is still 13.0 lakh ha below normal, though the gap has narrowed from the prior week, the report noted. Meanwhile, sowing for soybean and groundnut continues to lag.

Cotton acreage reached "79.5 lakh ha but remained 16.3 lakh ha below normal," the report said.

Near-Term Forecast

"Going forward, the anticipated fresh cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal, along with the monsoon trough persisting near its normal position, is expected to sustain rainfall over Central and East India in the near term," Dolat Capital noted. (ANI)

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