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Once a beacon of hydro-diplomacy, the Indus Waters Treaty now faces collapse amid tense situations. Let's take a moment to analyse the Indus Water Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960
In a public address, Pakistan's former Foreign Affairs Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari issued an ultimatum to India. He said,'...agree to the Indus Water treaty or Pakistan will wage another war..'.
This comes a day after Indian Home Minister Amit Shah stated in an interview that India will never restore terms of the 'Indus Water Treaty'. Amit Shah went on to add that that India will take water that was flowing to Pakistan to Rajasthan. 'Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably'.., reiterated Shah.
In light of this, it becomes pertinent to revisit the clauses of the now suspended treaty and why it was hailed as an example for India's commitment to diplomacy.
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In an era of growing water insecurity, the Indus Water Treaty, which was once hailed as a paragon of conflict resolution, a treaty which stood the test of time against heightened political tensions, wars, now stands at the cusp of irrelevance. Signed in 1960 by the then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his Pakistani counterpart Mohammad Ayub Khan, the treaty was once celebrated as a model of hydro-diplomacy is on the brink of running dry-- both in spirit and utility.
Why is IWT unique
The Indus Water treaty is unique in it's own respect because it grants exceptional concessions by the upper riparian state. According to the treaty, India is entitled to waters from the three eastern rivers of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej whereas the western rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were given to Pakistan. Though on face it seems equal, but in reality India's share of the total waters of the Indus Water System is hardly 1/5th under the clauses of the treaty.
The leverage that India has over Pakistan as an upper riparian state is so huge that David Lilienthal, the ex-chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority, who helped broker the start of negotiations, stated that...'No army, with bombs and shellfire, could devastate a land so thoroughly as Pakistan could be devastated by the simple expedient of India's permanently shutting off the sources of water that keep the fields and people of Pakistan alive.' Yet India has never called it's Indus cards until very recently.
The treaty called for the creation of a permanent Indus commission which consisted of representatives from both nations to handle routine matters and disputes. For decades, the agreement functioned as an apolitical buffer, a quiet miracle amid the animosity that plagued the two nations time and again through three wars (1965, 1971, 1999). Even when India and Pakistan diplomacy was at its lowest following the 2001 Parliament attacks and 2008 Mumbai attacks, the treaty stood strong.
Recent Flashpoints and Strategic Shifts
In the wake of the Uri attacks, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously declared that 'Blood and water cannot flow together...', while India did not revoke the treaty then, it started expediting the hydropower projects on the western rivers.
In 2023, India notified Pakistan to modify the treaty, citing Pakistan's repeated refusal to engage in treaty-mandated dispute resolution mechanism.
After April 2025, the Pahalgam attack increased call from different sectors to renegotiate the treaty and give a stern message to the deep state in Pakistan.
