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Southern India likely to witness heavier, more frequent rains in next 3 decades: Study

The study analysed two representative scenarios: medium emissions and high emissions. It also looked at all the districts of all the five southern states — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu — and is a part of a larger study projecting climate change across all the states of India.

Southern India likely to witness heavier, more frequent rains in next 3 decades: Study-dnm
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Bengaluru, First Published Jan 21, 2022, 2:06 PM IST

The southern states of India may witness heavier and more frequent rainfall and warmer summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over the next three decades, a recent study has revealed. According to the study researchers have studied the climate patterns of the period between 1991 and 2019 and have drawn a projection of the likely occurrences in south India.

Titled ‘District-Level Changes in Climate: Historical Climate and Climate Change Projections for the Southern States of India’, the study was published by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy.

The study analysed two representative scenarios: medium emissions and high emissions. It also looked at all the districts of all the five southern states — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu — and is a part of a larger study projecting climate change across all the states of India.

The study says, “Over the last three decades (1991-2019), temperature and rainfall have increased. We are also witnessing a greater variability in rainfall across all south Indian states. Climate projections (2021-2050) indicate overall warming of both summer and winter minimum temperatures, an increase in the number of rainy days (>2.5 mm rainfall/day) and an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events across almost all the districts of the southern states. The summer maximum temperature is projected to increase by 0.5°C to 1.5°C and the winter minimum temperature is projected to increase by 1°C to 2°C in a majority of the districts of southern India,” the study said.

As per the study, rainfall during the kharif (June to September) and rabi (October to December) seasons are projected to increase in the 2030s across South India during the monsoons.

“The maximum increase in the kharif season rainfall is projected in the districts of Andhra Pradesh (up to 29% increase). Rainfall during the rabi season is also projected to increase substantially in all the districts of South India, even up to 40% in Andhra Pradesh and 59% in Telangana. The number of rainy days is projected to increase in the 2030s in almost all the districts in South India,” the study said.

Karnataka is prone to loss and damage by droughts, floods due to extreme rainfall, landslides, hailstones, and forest fires. “According to the Vulnerability Atlas of India (2019), about 15% of the total geographical area is under moderate earthquake damage risk zone, 10 districts are prone to flooding and hilly areas of four districts are prone to landslides due to heavy rainfall events. Warming is projected to be higher in the northern districts of Karnataka,” the study said.

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