Explained: How Dissanayake's election as Sri Lanka's first Leftist president will impact relations with India

In a significant political shift, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the Marxist National People’s Power alliance, recently emerged victorious in the highly contested Sri Lankan presidential election. His win marks a pivotal moment in Sri Lanka's political landscape, as he becomes the first Leftist president to lead the government. Dissanayake secured 42.31 percent of the votes, defeating the pro-India opposition leader, Sajith Premadasa, in a tightly contested race that saw no candidate achieving the required majority.

On Monday, Dissanayake vowed to preserve democracy and do everything to clean public life as he was sworn in as Sri Lanka's ninth president by Chief Justice Jayantha Jayasuriya at the Presidential Secretariat.

“I assure you that I will do my best to preserve democracy and work towards restoring the honour of politicians as people have misgivings about their conduct," Dissanayake said in an address after taking the oath.

Dissanayake emphasized that Sri Lanka cannot afford to remain isolated and requires international cooperation. He acknowledged that he is not a magician, but his goal is to contribute to a collective effort to uplift the nation facing an economic crisis.

“I’m not a magician. I’m an ordinary citizen born in this country. I have abilities and inabilities. I have things I know and don’t know. My first task is to make use of people’s talents and know-how and make better decisions to lead this country,” he said.

“I want to be a contributor to that collective responsibility,” he added.

Who is Anura Kumara Dissanayake?

Dissanayake, leader of the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its broader front, the National People’s Power (NPP), emerged victorious in Saturday's election, defeating his closest rival, Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). This election marked the first since mass protests led to the ousting of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022 amid an economic crisis.

His swearing-in followed the resignation of Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena as part of a political transition after the presidential election. The Election Commission ordered an unprecedented second round of counting after no candidate secured the required 50 percent of the votes to be declared a winner. Ultimately, Dissanayake garnered 5.74 million votes, with 105,264 preferences, while Premadasa received 4.53 million votes and 167,867 preferences.

Dissanayake's anti-corruption platform and commitment to changing the political culture resonated with young voters who have been advocating for systemic reform since the economic crisis. His ascension to the presidency marks a significant turnaround for the JVP, which has historically been marginalized; he is the first leader from a Marxist party to hold the top office in Sri Lanka.

The NPP's popularity surged following the 2022 protests, a stark contrast to its performance in the 2019 presidential election, where it secured only about three percent of the votes. Hailing from rural Thambuttegama in the North Central province, Dissanayake is a science graduate from Kelaniya University and joined the JVP in 1987 during a time of intense anti-Indian sentiment.

He entered Parliament for the first time in the 2000 elections and has been a prominent opposition figure since. Dissanayake was re-elected in 2004 as part of an alliance with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, later becoming Minister of Agriculture. He served as the parliamentary group leader of the JVP in 2008 and as the chief opposition whip until 2019, when the JVP rebranded as the NPP to appeal to a broader demographic.

Facing immediate challenges, Dissanayake must navigate the future of economic reforms in the cash-strapped nation. Historically opposed to International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs, the NPP's recent support for the current program—with a call for renegotiation—signifies a notable shift in its stance.

Implications for India-Sri Lanka relations

India, having closely monitored the elections, faces new challenges in its relationship with Sri Lanka. Dissanayake's ascent is particularly notable as he was a marginal player in the previous elections, receiving only 3% of the votes. His victory raises questions about the future of Indo-Sri Lankan ties, particularly given his party’s traditionally anti-India stance.

Despite these challenges, India is better positioned to engage with Dissanayake compared to previous experiences in the region. Dissanayake's recent visit to India in February, where he was hosted by Indian officials including Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, underscores the groundwork laid for future cooperation. High Commissioner Santosh Jha was also the first diplomat to reach out to the president-elect, reaffirming India’s commitment to deepening ties for mutual prosperity.

India’s $4 billion assistance to Sri Lanka during its recent economic crisis has bolstered its standing in Colombo, providing a foundation upon which to build future relations. This assistance has been vital for Sri Lanka, which is grappling with severe economic challenges, including a controversial IMF bailout deal that Dissanayake has promised to renegotiate.

Key Priorities for India

As Dissanayake takes office, several key priorities for India emerge:

1. Tamils' Rights: Addressing the needs of the India-origin Tamil community in Sri Lanka remains a crucial issue. India is keen on the full implementation of the 1987 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which grants autonomy to provincial councils. While Dissanayake has expressed ambivalence about the amendment, he has acknowledged the need for constitutional changes that guarantee the rights of Tamil people.

2. Infrastructure and Connectivity: India aims to expedite various connectivity and energy projects, particularly as China expands its influence in the region. Maintaining a balance between Chinese investments and Indian projects is vital for regional stability.

3. Security Concerns: Ensuring that Sri Lanka does not allow military use of its ports by China is a top priority for India. Dissanayake has recently reassured Indian officials that he will not permit any foreign nation to use Sri Lankan territory to threaten India.

4. Corruption and Transparency: Dissanayake has raised concerns about corruption and lack of transparency in Chinese projects in Sri Lanka, such as the Hambantota port and Colombo port city. Indian officials view his focus on these issues as aligning with their own stance against opaque lending practices.

5. Environmental Issues: His commitment to scrap a wind power project backed by the Adani group, citing violations of Sri Lanka’s "energy sovereignty," has drawn attention. However, the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce has argued that such projects could attract further investments.

Dissanayake's election as president introduces a new chapter in Sri Lanka's political landscape, with implications for India-Sri Lanka relations that remain to be fully realized. While India has taken proactive steps to engage with the new leader, the evolving dynamics will require careful navigation. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Dissanayake's presidency fosters a cooperative relationship or challenges India's strategic interests in the region.