Explained: Russia Vs US-NATO faceoff over Ukraine

The ongoing standoff between Russia and NATO over Ukraine is evolving with every passing day. While Russia has amassed thousands of men and machinery near the Ukrainian border, the NATO allies have been busy bolstering their defences and throwing their weight behind Ukraine. To understand the scenarios playing out along the Ukraine-Russia border and get a sense of why Russia and the West are at loggerheads, Asianet Newsable spoke to Dr Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar-IDSA's Europe and Eurasia Centre.

Why is there such massive mobilisation of troops?

We must understand that whatever is happening in Ukraine is not the Ukrainian crisis per se. It stems from a long-standing Russian demand against NATO's eastward expansion. There are two things -- 1) What do the US and Russia plan to do about how much NATO should expand; and 2) Second and more interesting thing is how Europe is responding to it because it is actually becoming a European security crisis. So whatever these two major powers are doing is actually being felt and seen across Europe. We are seeing a lot of interesting responses coming out from many European powers. We also see lots of division and differences among Europeans, mainly from Germany, France, the UK, Poland etc. 

Will the US and NATO help Ukraine?

No, The US has already officially maintained that in case of a likely invasion since Ukraine is not a part of NATO, therefore the NATO's collective security umbrella is not extended to Ukraine. So NATO is not going to help Ukraine in that kind of a scenario in any manner. Ukraine is merely a flashpoint, and the real problem is about ego tussle between two superpowers. What we are interested in seeing is who is going to buckle first and who is going to give in to the other side's demand first. 

We all know that Moscow has been making certain demands from the US about getting guarantees against NATO's eastward expansion. We stand in a very interesting situation because the US has made specific demands that Russia will never relent on. Moscow has made certain demands that Washington will never agree upon, at least as far as the important ones are concerned. 

The most crucial demand is that Moscow wants guarantees against NATO's eastward expansion, especially since Ukraine will never become part of NATO. It is evident that the US would never guarantee because Ukraine wants to become a part of NATO. Ukraine is worried about its security, particularly after what had happened with Crimea in 2014. So Ukraine wants to become a part of NATO, but America doesn't want that because it would be too direct a confrontation to risk. But having said that, NATO would never guarantee that Ukraine would never become a part of it.

The US wants Moscow to retreat their troop deployments from Romania and Moldova. There are a lot of deployments that even Moscow does not agree upon. These are the certain flashpoints that do not have solutions.  

We have learnt that the US also wants Russia to inform beforehand whenever they do Anti-Satellite missile tests. This is interesting as the tests happen in space. So what we are seeing is that both sides are making demands to each other, which none of the sides will relent to. So the tension is going to continue. 

Why is Russian President Vladimir Putin doing this now?

Putin is doing it now because, on the one hand, the Russian side thinks it is long overdue. Also, they believe Biden has come up as a weak president, and from the perspective of Moscow, it is like if they do not do it now, they will never be able to do it again. So it is the best time to do it. We saw how the American hegemony suffered after they retreated from Afghanistan. So that is also one point. 

The other point that makes Putin a little bit emboldened is how both Russia and China keep backing each other on several issues the world over, especially when it comes to putting forth a united front against the US and allies. 

Another interesting point is that Europe is coming up with different security arrangements. Two things are happening in Europe. Various countries are trying for diplomatic solutions, negotiations, strategic dialogues, etc. For instance, there were talks under Normandy format. It is a format where France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia come together and talk. This is something very interesting as Ukraine and Russia were not coming together on any other platform. Besides, all these prominent European leaders have tried to meet and talk to Putin to defuse the tensions. 

Also, a new kind of security arrangement is coming up in place. For instance, the UK, Poland and Ukraine announced a regional security arrangement to deter the Russian threat. Europe is at the centre of all this drama. Whatever happens between these two powers or whatever is the stance of either of the two powers is going to have direct implications on the security of Europe. That is why European powers are worried about it. 

As far as India is concerned, its stand was not to say anything. We saw how India abstained during the United Nations Security Council debate on the Ukrainian crisis. Russia and China vetoed. India does not want to jeopardise its close relationship with Russia. We have a long-standing friendship and all that. So we do not want to disturb it because we live in a world order where all the countries have realised that they have to fend for themselves -- keeping international interests in mind, it is best to abstain and try not to get much involved in it.

Can India continue with this stand for a very long time?

I am afraid not. If this continues or escalates, India would definitely be forced to take some stand. We saw a beginning of it recently when the Ministry of External Affairs officially urged both sides to maintain restraint and find a solution through negotiation and dialogue.