India Ratings cuts FY23 GDP growth forecast downwards to 7-7.2%
Accordingly, the ratings agency believes that its ‘FY23 Economic Outlook’ released in January 2022 is unlikely to hold in view of the global geo-political situation arising out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Domestic ratings agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday cut its FY23 real GDP growth estimate by a sharp 0.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent, primarily driven by the fallout of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, the ratings agency believes that its ‘FY23 Economic Outlook’ released in January 2022 is unlikely to hold in view of the global geo-political situation arising out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“Since the duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be uncertain, Ind-Ra has created two scenarios with respect to the FY23 economic outlook basis certain assumptions.”
According to Ind-Ra, in scenario-one, crude oil price is assumed to be elevated for three months, and in scenario-two, the assumption is for six months, both with a half cost pass-through into the domestic economy.
“Ind-Ra expects GDP to grow 7.2 per cent YoY in ‘Scenario 1’ and 7 per cent YoY in ‘Scenario 2’ in FY23, compared to its earlier forecast of 7.6 per cent.”
“However, the size of the Indian economy in FY23 will still be 10.6 per cent and 10.8 per cent lower than the FY23 GDP trend value in ‘Scenario 1 and Scenario 2’, respectively.”
It can be noted that the Reserve Bank expects FY23 GDP growth rate at 7.8 per cent. The central bank is set to come out with the first bi-monthly monetary policy for next fiscal year in early April, when it will revisit the number.
Real GDP growth is likely to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22, which will lead to FY22 real GDP growth rate at 8.5 per cent.
As per the agency, consumption demand as measured by private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has been subdued in FY22, despite sales of select consumer durables showing some signs of revival during the festive season.
“As the consumer sentiment is likely to witness a further dent due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict leading to rising commodity prices or consumer inflation, Ind-Ra expects PFCE to grow at 8.1 per cent and 8 per cent in ‘Scenario 1 and 2’, respectively, in FY23, as against its earlier projection of 9.4 per cent.”
Besides PFCE, Ind-Ra said that private capex by large corporates, which has been down and out over the past several years, had shown some promise lately in view of the roll-out of the ‘Production-linked Incentive Scheme’ and increased manufacturing sector capacity utilisation driven by higher exports.
Furthermore, the agency cited that although the Centre acknowledges the adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the ongoing Indian economic recovery, it is unlikely to scale down its fiscal support already announced in the FY23 budget.