Explained: Why Wagner mercenaries went rogue and 'invaded' Vladimir Putin's Russia

By Girish Linganna | First Published Jun 24, 2023, 2:16 PM IST

Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an attack on the Defence Ministry, triggering calls for his arrest. The FSB has launched a criminal inquiry into Prigozhin, and armoured vehicles have been observed in Moscow. Girish Linganna reports

The simmering conflict between Russia's Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group CEO Yevgenv Prigozhin has erupted into an all-out battle, raising fears in Russia of a coup that might destabilise Putin's autocratic administration.

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Prigozhin, a mercenary boss and former close associate of Putin's, went on a Twitter rant in which he declared Russia's Defence Ministry 'must be stopped'. He accused them of ordering lethal missile strikes on his soldiers, and threatened revenge. Russia refuted his assertions, and stated that the alleged strikes were not independently confirmed.

Prigozhin invited Russians to join him and his thousands-strong cadre of seasoned warriors in the most alarming hint that he was conducting an armed insurrection, later claiming he was invading Russia.

"The evil carried by the country's military leadership must be stopped," Prigozhin declared, adding that his 25,000 mercenaries were prepared to face Russia's Defence Ministry. He also said that Russia's pretext for invading Ukraine was a 'racket' and that the war was started to enrich Russian elites.

According to the news site Meduza, the FSB reportedly ordered Wagner mercenaries, who played a crucial role in Russia's actions in Ukraine, to disregard Prigozhin's orders and work to help arrest him.

The development has alarmed Russians. Meanwhile, Meduza videos from Friday evening showed armoured military vehicles on the streets of Moscow.

It's unclear whether the feud will lead to fighting among Russians, but it's the most violent infighting among Russian military personnel since the February invasion of Ukraine, and it comes as Ukrainian forces begin their counteroffensive. It may possibly be the most unstable period in Russia's history under Putin.

In his first video message since Yevgeny Prigozhin began an armed insurrection, Vladimir Putin appealed to Russian patriotism to defend the Motherland against traitors.

Part of Putin's address. English subtitles. pic.twitter.com/b0VMcYjXeM

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en)

Putin stated in the 6-minute film that Mr Prigozhin and his mercenaries were engaging in "an armed mutiny" and that their selfish revolt was distracting Russians from protecting Russia against Nato and Nazis in Ukraine.

"It's an attempt to subvert us from within." "This is treason," he declared.

On Saturday morning, Mykhailo Podolyak, assistant to Ukraine's President's Office, tweeted: "The divide between the elites is too obvious." It is not enough to agree and pretend that everything is resolved. Prigozhin (with a deadly ending) or the collective 'anti-Prygozhin' (Putin's group and the 'Ozero' cooperative) must absolutely lose. In Russia, everything is just getting started."

The stakes are high for Putin, whose reliance on warring warlords has before been called into question. It has been observed that Putin pits Prigozhin and the Defence Ministry against one other, heightening tensions and shifting blame away from himself.

Putin has been good at using 'divide and rule' up until now, but it seems like things have reached a point where "not intervening calls into question the ability of the centre to control things to an uncomfortable degree," Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told News agencies on Friday.

According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, many Russian elite will blame Putin "for allowing the situation to escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely, adequate response when to many it was obvious that Prigozhin was pushing the limits of the Kremlin's tolerance."

So, this whole mess is also a blow to Putin's reputation," she said.

Before his outbursts on Friday, Prigozhin had been criticising the Russian defence ministry for months, especially Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff General Valery Gerasimov.

He has said harsh things about the Defence Ministry's failures on the battlefield and lack of support for his Wagner troops. This made many people wonder how he could be so openly hostile in a country that was heavily censoring comments about the war. It looks like what he said on Friday was the last straw.

Progozhin: The founder of Wagner PMC

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a strong and divisive person with close links to Vladimir Putin. He has a wide corporate network and represents the dark side of Russian power.

Progozhin was born in 1961 in Leningrad (now St Petersburg). He had a difficult childhood, spending time in a children's home and afterwards in a juvenile correctional centre.

He worked as a cook before opening a restaurant in St Petersburg. He obtained Russian government contracts to deliver meals for school children and government employees in the early 2000s.

This is where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was then the mayor of St. Petersburg.

He is also known as 'Putin's chef', because his company Concord Catering has the Kremlin's catering contracts. He also served nine years in prison after being convicted of robbery and fraud by the Soviet Union.

According to a report, Prigozhin created the Wagner Mercenary Group, a Private Military Company (PMC), in 2014, at the same time as Russian-based separatists controlled several government headquarters in Ukraine's Donbass and Luhansk regions.

The PMC was also involved in battles in Syria and Libya, where it has been accused of war crimes and human rights violations such as torture and summary executions. Prigozhin is also suspected of being the head of the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a troll farm accused of interfering in the 2016 US presidential election. The IRA used social media to distribute pro-Trump misinformation and influence the outcome of American elections.

Prigozhin has been sanctioned by the United States and the European Union for his actions, and the US Department of Justice is presently investigating him for potential criminal charges.

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